All things considered, late winter consistently packs a punch in NY
While we are accustomed to dreaming of a white Christmas, the data is clear. Late winter is when the northeastern US actually gets those nor'easters that we'll remember for years to come. Specifically the months of February, March, and April.
It’s also a terrible time to need a snowblower and not have one. There’s no more being shipped out by this time of year. What’s on the floor now is what is available for the 2024-2025 winter season. This is why we encourage early preparation.
Why this information now?
According to the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS), a WHOPPING FIFTY-SEVEN PERCENT (57%) of blockbuster northeast snowstorms occur between February and April.
That’s it, that was the “wow” part of the post. We wouldn’t blame you if you left right now. If you want to nerd-out a little with us, we included the nitty gritty details below.
Developed by the National Weather Service, NESIS measures how severe a snowstorm is in the Northeastern U.S. It was developed in 2004 and used historical data to rate storms on record as far back as 1956. The basic qualification for a storm to be considered for the scale are 10" of snowfall accumulations (or more) that affected a wide area of the northeast.
This graphic provided by NOAA is an example of how a snowstorm might get it's NESIS value after considering the area and population covered by the storm. The NESIS score would change if less or more populated areas were impacted and/or if the storm had more or less snow accumulation.
The scale factors in characteristics of snow storms, such as:
- Snowfall totals (10" +)
- The swath of area that was affected
- How many people are impacted
Like hurricanes, snowstorms are ranked in five categories:
- Notable
- Significant
- Major
- Crippling
- Extreme
Of all the storms recorded using the NESIS since 1956, most active decade of these snowstorms occurring February - April were the 2010s, with a whopping 24% of NESIS snow events in the Northeast for the decade.
What about more recently? Well, we’re just barely halfway through the 2020s. So far, high impact snowstorms occurring February - April already make up 16% of all the decades (1950s - present). So it could mean the 2020s will be the biggest decade for blockbuster snowstorms in the Northeast on record so far.
All of this to say: winter isn't over yet! The biggest likelihood of those memorable snowstorms are actually still very much in the realm of possibility.
If you made it this far... was this interesting? Want more long-form content from us? Consider signing up for our new after-hours newsletter, "The Leak: Hot Takes from the Small Engine Nerds." We're not sure what we're doing with it yet, but our families are really tired of us going on about things that affect our industry. We need a healthy outlet for all these thoughts, though. You can always unsubscribe later.
thanks for hanging out with Mowers And More